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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-23T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2024-01-23T06:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 75

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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40121
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jan 2024, 1252UT

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed directed to the south-east in SOHO/LASCO C2 chronograph images on January 20, at 09:24 UTC. The projected angular width is 151 degrees, and the projected speed is 631 km/s as estimated by SIDC/CACTUS tool. The source of this CME is a filament eruption. Due to the location to the filament, near the central meridian, the CME is heading towards Earth and is expected to impact the solar wind condition near Earth in 1-2 days from now, with a possible  also some geomagnetic impact. 

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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 chronograph images on January 20, at 09:24 UTC with the main direction towards South-East. SIDC/CACTUS tools provide an estimated projected angular width of 151 degrees, and a projected speed of 631 km/s. The source of this CME is a filament eruption located near the central meridian. Due to its location, the CME is expected head-in towards Earth and impact the solar wind condition near Earth on January 22-23, with also a possible geomagnetic impact.

Lead Time: 22.28 hour(s)
Difference: -13.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-01-21T17:44Z

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